Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 2.275475 2.406825 2.549762 2.718482 2.914432 3.137813 3.416351
2025-10-12 2.183196 2.356061 2.553415 2.800008 3.107178 3.488611 4.019661
2025-10-19 2.077933 2.269791 2.495404 2.787896 3.170220 3.676033 4.446889
2025-10-26 2.004898 2.211372 2.460091 2.792722 3.246378 3.883273 4.948203
2025-11-02 1.918738 2.129176 2.386550 2.737751 3.230565 3.951962 5.246578
2025-11-09 1.859326 2.075414 2.343663 2.717155 3.256836 4.083106 5.692263
2025-11-16 1.809636 2.030422 2.308153 2.701957 3.286710 4.221835 6.206579
2025-11-23 1.764044 1.987926 2.272734 2.682991 3.307075 4.346027 6.749826
2025-11-30 1.737242 1.967887 2.265269 2.701935 3.386545 4.587648 7.735475
2025-12-07 1.675584 1.899942 2.189974 2.617453 3.291713 4.487502 7.709225
2025-12-14 1.641296 1.866604 2.160139 2.597705 3.300641 4.589800 8.393471
2025-12-21 1.604667 1.828842 2.122542 2.563971 3.282777 4.635043 8.934888
2025-12-28 1.596910 1.830082 2.140066 2.616224 3.420548 5.047119 11.678017
2026-01-04 1.596602 1.840955 2.171154 2.691158 3.608699 5.644922 18.688226
2026-01-11 1.570287 1.815413 2.149023 2.680242 3.636460 5.857110 25.719369
2026-01-18 1.550207 1.797638 2.137157 2.684787 3.694197 6.175016 52.029055
2026-01-25 1.515649 1.758882 2.093321 2.634497 3.638029 6.141365 72.335608
2026-02-01 1.491758 1.734252 2.069296 2.615657 3.643683 6.304653 NaN
2026-02-08 1.470500 1.712674 2.048954 2.601745 3.657951 6.504450 NaN
2026-02-15 1.449367 1.690704 2.027260 2.584346 3.663138 6.678966 NaN
2026-02-22 1.438650 1.682943 2.026269 2.601786 3.744434 7.176422 NaN
2026-03-01 1.403385 1.639893 1.971279 2.524048 3.610818 6.782285 NaN
2026-03-08 1.384955 1.620280 1.951086 2.505850 3.608213 6.927463 NaN